Thursday, January 17, 2008

Michigan Primary Re-Cap

All right I'm a few days late on this but I figured I would get in my two cents.

Mitt Romney won the GOP primary in Michigan on Tuesday. Romney's success comes from a couple of things:

1) He benefited from his father being a 3-term governor in the state as well as the fact that Romney was born in Michigan, which put him in the role of the "homegrown son" of the state.

2) Romney walked around telling the people of Michigan that he could solve a lot of the economic problems that the state's residents faced (loss of jobs in the auto industry being a main one) which is the opposite of what John McCain, his chief opposition in this state, was saying to all of the residents.

3) Many people have said that John McCain won in New Hampshire because he was running for President of New Hampshire; this is basically what Romney did in Michigan. He stay optimistic and played up his background as someone who DOESNT come from Washington and railed heavily against "Washington insiders"(read: McCain).

4) Romney KILLED McCain when it came to getting Republicans to vote for him, he kept the base which is very important and it also proves that he could be a viable Front Runner because the base seems to like him. 40% of voters who considered themselves conservatives voted for Romney compared to only 22% for McCain.

This victory for Romney puts him firmly back in the race even though he wasn't really out of it. Two solid 2nd place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire should not have sent Romney wheeling but that is what the media portrayed it as. In reality Romney now has two states won (MI, WY) and has the delegate lead as well. Look for Romney to spend much more time in Nevada than South Carolina in the coming days for two reasons.
1) Nevada has a much bigger Mormon population than South Carolina, which only has about 35,000 Mormons. Nevada has over 100,000
2) Somehow Nevada has more delegates than South Carolina does so it is in Romney's best interest to work the state where he could get the most delegates.

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