Senator Barack Obama is on quite a roll. After a nice showing on Super Tuesday where he definitely held his own against Senator Hillary Clinton by winning more states than Clinton while she won the bigger states: California, New Jersey, New York. Following Super Tuesday Obama took the country by storm, 1st by defeating Clinton handily in the Washington and Nebraska Caucuses and the Louisiana Primary; he even won the Virgin Islands. Then on Tuesday Obama beat Clinton silly in the "Potomac Primaries": Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia where Obama defeated Clinton by 23%, 29%, and 51% respectively. Obama was able to do this by capitalizing in the Caucuses during the weekend where his supporters’ motivation and his great organization are keys to victories in Caucus states. On Tuesday Obama was able to win by large margins because he was finally be break Clinton's hold on certain demographics: Women, Blue-Collar Workers, and Seniors. Obama beat Clinton among seniors in Virginia and Maryland 52%-47% and 50%-46% respectively. On top of these demographics Obama also split the white vote in Virginia and Maryland basically 50-50. This is a vast improvement from earlier in this campaign where he got only 24% of the white vote in South Carolina and that was considered high!
Hillary Clinton did not spend any time in the Potomac states after the voting started, she jetted straight to Texas which is one of her "firewall" states along with Ohio and my very own Pennsylvania. Texas and Ohio vote on March 4th and Pennsylvania goes to the polls on April 22nd. Recent polls in both Ohio and Pennsylvania show Clinton with a sizeable lead on Obama; 55%-34% among Ohio Democrats and 52%-36% among Pennsylvania Democrats. In the next few weeks Clinton will be trying to draw sharp contrasts with herself and Senator Obama in order for her to get back in this race because although the delegate race is fairly even Obama has taken the lead for the very first time and according to a report from the Orlando Sentinel notable Clinton supporter and Democratic Strategist James Carville said "make no mistake... If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done." It appears by looking at these polls that Clinton still has a chance but if there is one thing we have learned in this Democratic race is that the longer Barack Obama campaigns in a state the more votes and momentum he gets, it would not surprise anyone to see these polls be within 7 or 8 points within the next 10 days or so. What is even more interesting now is that it appears that unless Clinton or Obama win the rest of the states by a ridiculous margin, lets by getting 80% of the vote neither will have enough pledged delegates to reach the 2,025 number needed in order to receive the nomination. This brings in the Superdelegates, high-ranking members of the Democratic National Committee, members or Congress, Governors and Former Presidents (at least we know 1 of them will be voting for Hillary). There are 796 Superdelegates which means that 1 of their votes is equivalent to about 10,000 popular votes. Needless to say they have ALL the power when it comes down to a close campaign like this one. Hopefully one of the candidates will be far enough ahead heading into the convention that all of these Superdelegates will be forced to vote the way the people have so there will not be any riots on the streets of Denver Colorado where the Democratic Convention will be held at the end of August.
The next big primary on the Democratic side will be the Wisconsin Primary where it is expected that Obama will win yet again giving him 9 wins in a row, in Clinton's defense she will not be spending much time there, only running ads, she will spend almost all of her time campaigning very hard down in Texas and in Ohio to try to keep this race close heading into Pennsylvania.
Mitt Romney Endorses John McCain...Don't These Guys Hate Each Other?
It is now being widely reported that Governor Mitt Romney will endorse the GOP front-runner Senator John McCain. It is also being reported that Romney will ask all 286 of his delegates to back John McCain which would make McCain a mere 81 delegates away from wrapping up the nomination. The read on this move is that if Romney does this that will help end the GOP campaign and give it time to heal and unite in order to try to defeat the Democrats this November. Due to very high Democratic turnout, 2-1 to Republican turnout, in the primaries and caucuses it is very important for the Republicans to get their act together if they want to try to defeat the Democrats who appear to be very mobilized and ready to take back the White House.
Showing posts with label Mitt Romney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mitt Romney. Show all posts
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Friday, February 8, 2008
Super Tuesday Re-Cap, Romney is Out and McCain is the GOP Man.
Wow, what a night Tuesday was. Lots of crazy action happening. Overall I would say that things happened roughly how we all thought they would with one exception: Mike Huckabee.
Huckabee started of Tuesday with a bang when he won the West Virginia Caucuses defeating Mitt Romney by 5 points 52-47. This win was not without controversy though as Romney accused Senator John McCain of turning a "backroom Washington deal" where McCain supposedly told all of his supporters to vote for Huckabee to keep Romney from winning a state he had previously thought would be his. McCain denied this accusation but if you look at the facts this could be totally plausible. Bill Richardson was accused to doing this same thing in Iowa where it was thought that he informed his people to throw their weight behind Barack Obama. McCain needed Romney to falter on Tuesday in order to keep him at bay and to try to secure the nomination that night. If McCain (who did not receive the needed 15% to be viable) did tell his supporters to back Huckabee that would have been a very smart strategy, once Huckabee wins this state Romney is now already behind where he thought he would be on this day. I would not call this strategy (if it did occur, but I mean Come On!) devious as Romney's camp did, things like this can happen by themselves in a caucus based on the rules in a caucus, once this occurred you had a feeling that this probably wont be Mitt Romney's day. Huckabee's good day/night continued as he went on to win several Southern states including his home state Arkansas. Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama were the other states Huckabee won. This also contributed to Romney's Super Tuesday Failure because in order for him to keep up with McCain Romeny was going to have to win these southern states to keep the delegate count close. John McCain did just as well as we all thought, winning 9 states including the big delegate states of California and New York as well as the bellwether state Missouri. He now has 714 delegates and only need 1191 to secure the nomination.
All of this led to Mitt Romney suspending his campaign yesterday at the CPAC convention, a Conservative Convention where he praised heavily by all. Romney gave a great conservative speech and said he was stepping out because he wanted to give the party time to get ready for the General Election, he didn't want to "forestall the launch of a national campaign and be making it easier for Senator Clinton or Obama to win." This has set up Mitt Romney as the Conservative Candidate for the next election. (be it 2012 if the Dems win or if McCain chooses to serve only 1 term or 2016) There has been much ballyhoo about how all of the Conservative talk radio hosts have hated on John McCain saying that he is not conservative enough for them and had been begging people to vote for Romney, these are the same people that backed candidates who had no chance at winning the nomination: Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, even Rudy Giuliani. All of these talk radio people waited too long to get behind Romney who they didn't have great things to say about earlier in this campaign and now it appears the GOP has their candidate, and he is not nearly the nominee that they had hoped for. I think this is a clear sign that these talk radio people: Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, Laura Ingraham (who introduced Romney before he spoke at CPAC) are losing their influence on the voters.
Democrats Duke it Out...Still Nothing New.
On the other side of the isle the Democratic race went exactly the way we had expected, 1600 or so delegates were handed out on Tuesday and Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama split them very fairly. Obama won the majority of states however 14-8 but Clinton won the big states: California, New Jersey, and New York. Obama took many of the caucus states, where good organizations and enthusiasm is needed in order to pull off a win. Obama won Minnesota, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, Alaska, and Kansas on Tuesday; he also took the primaries in Georgia, Alabama, Delaware, Connecticut (on of the few surprises), and his home state of Illinois where he defeated Clinton 2-1. Clinton took her two home states of New York and Arkansas. Obama supporters have been happy to point out that Clinton's victory in New York was much closer than Obama's in Illinois which they point to as proof he is indeed winning this fight and on a roll. Hillary did take California by a sizeable margin, which defied a number of polls that came out right before Tuesday that showed Obama tied or even leading in some cases in California. Overall we still don’t know who is going to come out of this race ahead, we will know more over the weekend and into next Tuesday where Primaries will be held in the "Potomac States" of Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. on the 12th. Caucuses will be held in Washington and Nebraska. Those caucuses look to be Obama country as well as Maryland and D.C given their Black population, Hillary will have a shot at Virginia but it appears she will be holding back and putting money into Ohio and Texas who will vote on March 4th.
Huckabee started of Tuesday with a bang when he won the West Virginia Caucuses defeating Mitt Romney by 5 points 52-47. This win was not without controversy though as Romney accused Senator John McCain of turning a "backroom Washington deal" where McCain supposedly told all of his supporters to vote for Huckabee to keep Romney from winning a state he had previously thought would be his. McCain denied this accusation but if you look at the facts this could be totally plausible. Bill Richardson was accused to doing this same thing in Iowa where it was thought that he informed his people to throw their weight behind Barack Obama. McCain needed Romney to falter on Tuesday in order to keep him at bay and to try to secure the nomination that night. If McCain (who did not receive the needed 15% to be viable) did tell his supporters to back Huckabee that would have been a very smart strategy, once Huckabee wins this state Romney is now already behind where he thought he would be on this day. I would not call this strategy (if it did occur, but I mean Come On!) devious as Romney's camp did, things like this can happen by themselves in a caucus based on the rules in a caucus, once this occurred you had a feeling that this probably wont be Mitt Romney's day. Huckabee's good day/night continued as he went on to win several Southern states including his home state Arkansas. Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama were the other states Huckabee won. This also contributed to Romney's Super Tuesday Failure because in order for him to keep up with McCain Romeny was going to have to win these southern states to keep the delegate count close. John McCain did just as well as we all thought, winning 9 states including the big delegate states of California and New York as well as the bellwether state Missouri. He now has 714 delegates and only need 1191 to secure the nomination.
All of this led to Mitt Romney suspending his campaign yesterday at the CPAC convention, a Conservative Convention where he praised heavily by all. Romney gave a great conservative speech and said he was stepping out because he wanted to give the party time to get ready for the General Election, he didn't want to "forestall the launch of a national campaign and be making it easier for Senator Clinton or Obama to win." This has set up Mitt Romney as the Conservative Candidate for the next election. (be it 2012 if the Dems win or if McCain chooses to serve only 1 term or 2016) There has been much ballyhoo about how all of the Conservative talk radio hosts have hated on John McCain saying that he is not conservative enough for them and had been begging people to vote for Romney, these are the same people that backed candidates who had no chance at winning the nomination: Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, even Rudy Giuliani. All of these talk radio people waited too long to get behind Romney who they didn't have great things to say about earlier in this campaign and now it appears the GOP has their candidate, and he is not nearly the nominee that they had hoped for. I think this is a clear sign that these talk radio people: Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, Laura Ingraham (who introduced Romney before he spoke at CPAC) are losing their influence on the voters.
Democrats Duke it Out...Still Nothing New.
On the other side of the isle the Democratic race went exactly the way we had expected, 1600 or so delegates were handed out on Tuesday and Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama split them very fairly. Obama won the majority of states however 14-8 but Clinton won the big states: California, New Jersey, and New York. Obama took many of the caucus states, where good organizations and enthusiasm is needed in order to pull off a win. Obama won Minnesota, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, Alaska, and Kansas on Tuesday; he also took the primaries in Georgia, Alabama, Delaware, Connecticut (on of the few surprises), and his home state of Illinois where he defeated Clinton 2-1. Clinton took her two home states of New York and Arkansas. Obama supporters have been happy to point out that Clinton's victory in New York was much closer than Obama's in Illinois which they point to as proof he is indeed winning this fight and on a roll. Hillary did take California by a sizeable margin, which defied a number of polls that came out right before Tuesday that showed Obama tied or even leading in some cases in California. Overall we still don’t know who is going to come out of this race ahead, we will know more over the weekend and into next Tuesday where Primaries will be held in the "Potomac States" of Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. on the 12th. Caucuses will be held in Washington and Nebraska. Those caucuses look to be Obama country as well as Maryland and D.C given their Black population, Hillary will have a shot at Virginia but it appears she will be holding back and putting money into Ohio and Texas who will vote on March 4th.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Obama gains support, Hillary wins Florida, John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani say good bye, McCain....the front runner?
This week has been CRAZY in the world of politics; from the entire Kennedy family endorsing Obama to GWB's last State of the Union speech to Edwards and Giuliani dropping out. So much has gone on that it hard to keep up with it all but I'll try to sort through it here.
Obama, the new king of Camelot.
Barack Obama got the endorsement of Caroline Kennedy, daughter of John F. Kennedy, Senator Ted Kennedy and his son Congressman Patrick Kennedy all endorsed Obama early this week. Caroline said that Obama was the 1st politician, and person for that matter, that had been able to inspire people like her father had done...pretty high praise. These endorsements, especially Caroline's and Ted's are very important to Obama, this is the 1st time Carolina has endorsed someone since the 1980 election when Senator Kennedy ran. Ted Kennedy has long been a friend to the Latino community and he is expected to court their votes for Obama in the border states. Kennedy was a co-author on a bill with John McCain on Illegal Immigration, the one that is getting McCain KILLED because it apparently is de-facto amnesty. These endorsements leads us to what happened in Florida on Tuesday night on the Democratic side, Hillary declared victory but received no delegates.
If Hillary wins the Florida Primary but gets no delegates does anyone really care?
Hillary Clinton won the Democratic Primary in Florida this week but due to Florida ignoring the DMC's mandate that they keep their primary behind Super Tuesday Florida was stripped of their delegates making the primary a "beauty contest". None of the candidates campaigned at all in the Sunshine State but at the end of the night 1.7 Million democrats still came out to cast votes. Hillary ended up winning handily by about 20 points, she flew down to celebrate her "victory" as a ploy to take some momentum away from Obama which he received when he was endorsed by the Kennedy Clan. Florida, like Michigan, does not have any delegates and it will be very interesting to see when it comes to the Convention if there will be an attempt by the Clinton Campaign to seat these delegates which both broke for her. All in all though it seems like stupid politics because Hillary can say she won but it counts for nothing, it’s like a pre-season football game.
McCain maybe the Front Runner, but he’s not a Straight Talker.
John McCain won the Florida Primary on Tuesday night, a huge win for him giving the Arizona senior senator the delegate lead and the ability to call himself the front runner, he won in a closed primary where only Republicans could vote in. Much was made of this due to McCain's ability to court Independents very well in the states he had previously won (NH, SC). McCain even mentioned it in his victory speech. McCain's win is even more interesting and you could say even more solid by looking at some of the exit polls. Voters were asked what they thought was the most important issue in their year's campaign was 45% said the Economy, presumably Mitt Romney's best issue and something he campaigns about all the time, only 21% said the biggest issue was Terrorism, McCain's best issue, and McCain still won.
Now McCain is considered the front-runner but in last night's GOP debate in California he was not the Straight Talker he claims to be. In the lead up to the Florida Primary McCain began to talk about how Mitt Romney was for "Timetables" in Iraq. This charge comes from an interview Romney did early in 2007 where he spoke of timetables for the Iraqi Government meet certain expectations, not of a timetable to get out of Iraq. McCain twisted Romney's words and actually backed up his statement on CNN last time, even after Anderson Cooper (or as I call him 360) read the entire quote and it was clear Romney was not for a timetable to get out of Iraq. All of that dishonesty doesn’t appear to be hurting McCain however as he picked up Rudy Giuliani's endorsement last night and Arnold Swarchenegger's this afternoon.
John Edwards is out, so is Rudy.
John Edwards got out of the presidential campaign after coming in a distant 3rd in South Carolina as well a distant 3rd in the Florida primary (but we know that didn’t count...HILLARY). I never saw Edwards as really viable in all honesty. It made no difference that he had practically been campaigning for the last 4 years. When it came to Iowa, his strong hold, he still couldn’t defeat Obama, a newcomer. It was over right there; a couple of 3rd place finishes after than including a despicable 4% showing in Nevada. It will be very interesting to see who he decides to endorse and when. The longer he waits to endorse the more power it gives to Hillary because Edwards campaigned as a change agent like Obama, and if he does not endorse Obama or waits until after Super Tuesday to do so Barack could be busted. But if Edwards comes out tomorrow and endorses him then it could give Obama a bump into Feb. 5th. On the other hand if Edwards goes and endorses Hillary I see that as putting the icing on the nomination for her.
Rudy Giuliani ended his bid for President this week after a terrible showing in Florida, the state where he planned to win and jump-start him into the race. After laying low in almost all the early states (besides NH where he campaigned heavily and still got blasted) Rudy came down to the Sunshine State to try to win it but he failed, miserably. Once the national front-runner, Rudy dropped quickly once the other states started to fall to the likes of Huckabee, McCain, and Romney. All the other candidates rolled into Florida with momentum, money, organizations that were thriving. Rudy continued to fall in the polls and landed 3rd the last one taken before the primary on Tuesday, and that’s where he finished, 3rd. This was a failed strategy from the beginning and it killed Rudy.
Obama, the new king of Camelot.
Barack Obama got the endorsement of Caroline Kennedy, daughter of John F. Kennedy, Senator Ted Kennedy and his son Congressman Patrick Kennedy all endorsed Obama early this week. Caroline said that Obama was the 1st politician, and person for that matter, that had been able to inspire people like her father had done...pretty high praise. These endorsements, especially Caroline's and Ted's are very important to Obama, this is the 1st time Carolina has endorsed someone since the 1980 election when Senator Kennedy ran. Ted Kennedy has long been a friend to the Latino community and he is expected to court their votes for Obama in the border states. Kennedy was a co-author on a bill with John McCain on Illegal Immigration, the one that is getting McCain KILLED because it apparently is de-facto amnesty. These endorsements leads us to what happened in Florida on Tuesday night on the Democratic side, Hillary declared victory but received no delegates.
If Hillary wins the Florida Primary but gets no delegates does anyone really care?
Hillary Clinton won the Democratic Primary in Florida this week but due to Florida ignoring the DMC's mandate that they keep their primary behind Super Tuesday Florida was stripped of their delegates making the primary a "beauty contest". None of the candidates campaigned at all in the Sunshine State but at the end of the night 1.7 Million democrats still came out to cast votes. Hillary ended up winning handily by about 20 points, she flew down to celebrate her "victory" as a ploy to take some momentum away from Obama which he received when he was endorsed by the Kennedy Clan. Florida, like Michigan, does not have any delegates and it will be very interesting to see when it comes to the Convention if there will be an attempt by the Clinton Campaign to seat these delegates which both broke for her. All in all though it seems like stupid politics because Hillary can say she won but it counts for nothing, it’s like a pre-season football game.
McCain maybe the Front Runner, but he’s not a Straight Talker.
John McCain won the Florida Primary on Tuesday night, a huge win for him giving the Arizona senior senator the delegate lead and the ability to call himself the front runner, he won in a closed primary where only Republicans could vote in. Much was made of this due to McCain's ability to court Independents very well in the states he had previously won (NH, SC). McCain even mentioned it in his victory speech. McCain's win is even more interesting and you could say even more solid by looking at some of the exit polls. Voters were asked what they thought was the most important issue in their year's campaign was 45% said the Economy, presumably Mitt Romney's best issue and something he campaigns about all the time, only 21% said the biggest issue was Terrorism, McCain's best issue, and McCain still won.
Now McCain is considered the front-runner but in last night's GOP debate in California he was not the Straight Talker he claims to be. In the lead up to the Florida Primary McCain began to talk about how Mitt Romney was for "Timetables" in Iraq. This charge comes from an interview Romney did early in 2007 where he spoke of timetables for the Iraqi Government meet certain expectations, not of a timetable to get out of Iraq. McCain twisted Romney's words and actually backed up his statement on CNN last time, even after Anderson Cooper (or as I call him 360) read the entire quote and it was clear Romney was not for a timetable to get out of Iraq. All of that dishonesty doesn’t appear to be hurting McCain however as he picked up Rudy Giuliani's endorsement last night and Arnold Swarchenegger's this afternoon.
John Edwards is out, so is Rudy.
John Edwards got out of the presidential campaign after coming in a distant 3rd in South Carolina as well a distant 3rd in the Florida primary (but we know that didn’t count...HILLARY). I never saw Edwards as really viable in all honesty. It made no difference that he had practically been campaigning for the last 4 years. When it came to Iowa, his strong hold, he still couldn’t defeat Obama, a newcomer. It was over right there; a couple of 3rd place finishes after than including a despicable 4% showing in Nevada. It will be very interesting to see who he decides to endorse and when. The longer he waits to endorse the more power it gives to Hillary because Edwards campaigned as a change agent like Obama, and if he does not endorse Obama or waits until after Super Tuesday to do so Barack could be busted. But if Edwards comes out tomorrow and endorses him then it could give Obama a bump into Feb. 5th. On the other hand if Edwards goes and endorses Hillary I see that as putting the icing on the nomination for her.
Rudy Giuliani ended his bid for President this week after a terrible showing in Florida, the state where he planned to win and jump-start him into the race. After laying low in almost all the early states (besides NH where he campaigned heavily and still got blasted) Rudy came down to the Sunshine State to try to win it but he failed, miserably. Once the national front-runner, Rudy dropped quickly once the other states started to fall to the likes of Huckabee, McCain, and Romney. All the other candidates rolled into Florida with momentum, money, organizations that were thriving. Rudy continued to fall in the polls and landed 3rd the last one taken before the primary on Tuesday, and that’s where he finished, 3rd. This was a failed strategy from the beginning and it killed Rudy.
Monday, January 21, 2008
A Look Back At The Weekend
The Caucuses and Primary this weekend provided no real insight to what is going on so far, but then did fill in some details.
Nevada: "Romney Rolls and Obama comes in 2nd but 1st in Delegates...?
Mitt Romney was the only GOP candidate to campaign heavily (if you could even call it that) in Nevada. This fact, coupled with the large population of people who are members of the LDS church gave Romney a very wide margin of victory, 37%. Ron Paul came in a distant 2nd with 14%(double digits just as was predicted here). Paul took something like 63% of the independent vote completely killing McCain's chances of a 2nd place finish to brag about. Romney's win gave him a nice lead in the delegate count, although it can be said that they are no matter this early in the race. The 1st primaries/caucuses serve more as momentum boosters and a test to see who can organize well.
Hillary Clinton's defeat is proof that she still has an advantage, at least organizationally. There was much bally-hoo made about Obama getting the Culinary Worker's Union endorsement, just as much was made of the fact that it gives those workers, who work in the Casinos of Las Vegas, being able to caucus in their workplace making it easier for them to attend. It needs to be said that these were considered "At-Large" caucus sights (read: More Important). Based on this the Clintons (Teachers Union who supported Clinton) complained and eventually there was actually a lawsuit about it, which didn't amount to anything. What is really interesting about this caucus was that in these "at-large" caucuses Hillary did very well. In fact she won Clark County, the County containing Las Vegas and 1.8 million of the 2.5 million that inhabit Nevada. She won the county 53%-39% and while that was happening Obama was winning the majority of all the other counties in the state. This leads up to the fact that Obama took more delegates away from Nevada, 13, than Clinton did, 12. As it has been happening the older you were the more likely it was you voted for Hillary and the opposite was true for Obama. Obama took the black vote by a large margin; he had 83% of their vote. If that carries on into South Carolina Obama and Clinton could each have 2 of the 1st 4 Primary/Caucus states on their way into Florida as well as Super Tuesday on Feb 5th.
South Carolina: McCain as a front-runner? Rudy still has a chance at this thing.
John McCain defeated Mike Huckabee in what could have been a loser goes home state. McCain beat Huckabee by 3% 33-30. The close race probably keeps Hukabee in the race but he will need a strong showing in Florida if he really wants to continue, he is running out of money. Fred Thompson came in a distant 3rd at 16% followed by Romney who didn’t campaign hard in South Carolina with 15%. McCain got 27% of the Evangelical vote, which is pretty surprising if you ask me. That is a nice chuck of that demographic. Some people are calling this victory for McCain proof that he can win a state that has a lot of conservative voters, he won 31% of Republicans to Huckabee's 32%. McCain still took the Independent vote however.
So John McCain and Mitt Romney seem to be sitting at the top of the GOP hill for at least this week. Florida is a big piece of the Republican puzzle and it seems that we will know a lot more after the primary in the Sunshine State. Rudy Giuliani is currently 2nd in Florida according to the Real Clear Politics poll. McCain leads with 23% followed by Rudy with 20%, Romney and Huckabee with 19% and 17% respectively. I could see Romney's numbers going up a bit after his Nevada win as well as McCain's and it will be up to Rudy to play it HUGE down in Florida if he wants any chance and getting the nomination. I will say this right here and now. If Rudy does not win or get at least 25% of the vote he will not win the nomination. Period. End of story. We'll find out in 8 short days.
Nevada: "Romney Rolls and Obama comes in 2nd but 1st in Delegates...?
Mitt Romney was the only GOP candidate to campaign heavily (if you could even call it that) in Nevada. This fact, coupled with the large population of people who are members of the LDS church gave Romney a very wide margin of victory, 37%. Ron Paul came in a distant 2nd with 14%(double digits just as was predicted here). Paul took something like 63% of the independent vote completely killing McCain's chances of a 2nd place finish to brag about. Romney's win gave him a nice lead in the delegate count, although it can be said that they are no matter this early in the race. The 1st primaries/caucuses serve more as momentum boosters and a test to see who can organize well.
Hillary Clinton's defeat is proof that she still has an advantage, at least organizationally. There was much bally-hoo made about Obama getting the Culinary Worker's Union endorsement, just as much was made of the fact that it gives those workers, who work in the Casinos of Las Vegas, being able to caucus in their workplace making it easier for them to attend. It needs to be said that these were considered "At-Large" caucus sights (read: More Important). Based on this the Clintons (Teachers Union who supported Clinton) complained and eventually there was actually a lawsuit about it, which didn't amount to anything. What is really interesting about this caucus was that in these "at-large" caucuses Hillary did very well. In fact she won Clark County, the County containing Las Vegas and 1.8 million of the 2.5 million that inhabit Nevada. She won the county 53%-39% and while that was happening Obama was winning the majority of all the other counties in the state. This leads up to the fact that Obama took more delegates away from Nevada, 13, than Clinton did, 12. As it has been happening the older you were the more likely it was you voted for Hillary and the opposite was true for Obama. Obama took the black vote by a large margin; he had 83% of their vote. If that carries on into South Carolina Obama and Clinton could each have 2 of the 1st 4 Primary/Caucus states on their way into Florida as well as Super Tuesday on Feb 5th.
South Carolina: McCain as a front-runner? Rudy still has a chance at this thing.
John McCain defeated Mike Huckabee in what could have been a loser goes home state. McCain beat Huckabee by 3% 33-30. The close race probably keeps Hukabee in the race but he will need a strong showing in Florida if he really wants to continue, he is running out of money. Fred Thompson came in a distant 3rd at 16% followed by Romney who didn’t campaign hard in South Carolina with 15%. McCain got 27% of the Evangelical vote, which is pretty surprising if you ask me. That is a nice chuck of that demographic. Some people are calling this victory for McCain proof that he can win a state that has a lot of conservative voters, he won 31% of Republicans to Huckabee's 32%. McCain still took the Independent vote however.
So John McCain and Mitt Romney seem to be sitting at the top of the GOP hill for at least this week. Florida is a big piece of the Republican puzzle and it seems that we will know a lot more after the primary in the Sunshine State. Rudy Giuliani is currently 2nd in Florida according to the Real Clear Politics poll. McCain leads with 23% followed by Rudy with 20%, Romney and Huckabee with 19% and 17% respectively. I could see Romney's numbers going up a bit after his Nevada win as well as McCain's and it will be up to Rudy to play it HUGE down in Florida if he wants any chance and getting the nomination. I will say this right here and now. If Rudy does not win or get at least 25% of the vote he will not win the nomination. Period. End of story. We'll find out in 8 short days.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Michigan Primary Re-Cap
All right I'm a few days late on this but I figured I would get in my two cents.
Mitt Romney won the GOP primary in Michigan on Tuesday. Romney's success comes from a couple of things:
1) He benefited from his father being a 3-term governor in the state as well as the fact that Romney was born in Michigan, which put him in the role of the "homegrown son" of the state.
2) Romney walked around telling the people of Michigan that he could solve a lot of the economic problems that the state's residents faced (loss of jobs in the auto industry being a main one) which is the opposite of what John McCain, his chief opposition in this state, was saying to all of the residents.
3) Many people have said that John McCain won in New Hampshire because he was running for President of New Hampshire; this is basically what Romney did in Michigan. He stay optimistic and played up his background as someone who DOESNT come from Washington and railed heavily against "Washington insiders"(read: McCain).
4) Romney KILLED McCain when it came to getting Republicans to vote for him, he kept the base which is very important and it also proves that he could be a viable Front Runner because the base seems to like him. 40% of voters who considered themselves conservatives voted for Romney compared to only 22% for McCain.
This victory for Romney puts him firmly back in the race even though he wasn't really out of it. Two solid 2nd place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire should not have sent Romney wheeling but that is what the media portrayed it as. In reality Romney now has two states won (MI, WY) and has the delegate lead as well. Look for Romney to spend much more time in Nevada than South Carolina in the coming days for two reasons.
1) Nevada has a much bigger Mormon population than South Carolina, which only has about 35,000 Mormons. Nevada has over 100,000
2) Somehow Nevada has more delegates than South Carolina does so it is in Romney's best interest to work the state where he could get the most delegates.
Mitt Romney won the GOP primary in Michigan on Tuesday. Romney's success comes from a couple of things:
1) He benefited from his father being a 3-term governor in the state as well as the fact that Romney was born in Michigan, which put him in the role of the "homegrown son" of the state.
2) Romney walked around telling the people of Michigan that he could solve a lot of the economic problems that the state's residents faced (loss of jobs in the auto industry being a main one) which is the opposite of what John McCain, his chief opposition in this state, was saying to all of the residents.
3) Many people have said that John McCain won in New Hampshire because he was running for President of New Hampshire; this is basically what Romney did in Michigan. He stay optimistic and played up his background as someone who DOESNT come from Washington and railed heavily against "Washington insiders"(read: McCain).
4) Romney KILLED McCain when it came to getting Republicans to vote for him, he kept the base which is very important and it also proves that he could be a viable Front Runner because the base seems to like him. 40% of voters who considered themselves conservatives voted for Romney compared to only 22% for McCain.
This victory for Romney puts him firmly back in the race even though he wasn't really out of it. Two solid 2nd place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire should not have sent Romney wheeling but that is what the media portrayed it as. In reality Romney now has two states won (MI, WY) and has the delegate lead as well. Look for Romney to spend much more time in Nevada than South Carolina in the coming days for two reasons.
1) Nevada has a much bigger Mormon population than South Carolina, which only has about 35,000 Mormons. Nevada has over 100,000
2) Somehow Nevada has more delegates than South Carolina does so it is in Romney's best interest to work the state where he could get the most delegates.
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