Monday, February 4, 2008

Its Obama and Clinton and Down the Stretch They Come!

A couple of new polls have been released in the past couple of days that are shedding some light on the Democratic race on Super Tuesday. Most notably was the release of the new National Nomination poll from CNN where their data showed Obama clearing out ALL of Clinton's lead and had him ahead of her by 3 points, 49-46. There is also a new poll in New Jersey by Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby that has Hillary and Barack in a dead heat. Out in California, the most important (or at least delegate rich) state that is voting on Tuesday, there are two new polls showing Obama with a lead of 6 and a lead of 1.

Now all of this doesn't mean a terrible amount, but its not like this isn’t news either. Because nearly all Democratic Primaries/Caucuses are not winner take all; as long as the two candidates stay within about 10% of each other they will split the delegates pretty evenly. What this does show is that Barack as ALL the Mo, I've seen people argue that if Super Tuesday were another week away Obama could possibly come out with a "win"(more states, more delegates) and I agree with that, it seems that Obama is really striking a chord in America. Obama even took out an ad in local markets in Super Tuesday states during the Super Bowl.

It appears that this will be a race down to the wire and Super Tuesday wont be a big help in figuring out who the Democratic nomination will be. A "doomsday" scenario for the Democrats would be Pennsylvania (YAY!). Ben Smith, of, described this situation on Saturday.

"The current consensus is that this whole thing might wrap up Tuesday; or it might drag through March 4.

But burnt-out campaign operatives are also grimly contemplating another possibility: the "Pennsylvania scenario."

Pennsylvania, on April 22, is the last big state to vote, with 158 pledged delegates. It also comes more than a month after the previous primary, in Mississippi, on March 11.

And so, if the two Democrats are still alive then, Pennsylvania becomes Iowa, on steroids. The campaigns and the media all decamp to Harrisburg. Clinton and Obama develop a keen interest in the concerns of the Amish. Michael Nutter becomes a major national figure."

So if a winner is still not declared by March 11 this whole big circus is coming to the Keystone State. For a MONTH. I feel torn about this situation because if this nomination process has to go this far I have a feeling things will go through at least one more "nasty cycle" which will eventually start to hurt the Democrats and strengthen the Republicans because it seems that McCain might have his candidacy by early Wednesday morning, giving plenty of time to the GOP to point and laugh at all the infighting the Democrats are doing, it also gives time for the Republicans to solidify their base and get behind McCain.

On the other hand if Pennsylvania turned into Iowa for a month I would be very excited to see the whole political process right in front of my face. Living in a college town (State College) the candidates would stop here every time they go to Pittsburgh from Philadelphia and vice versa. (And Allentown and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) Hillary and Obama would be having rallies in the Bryce Jordan Center and shaking hands with Joe Paterno, it would be CRAZY.

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